After this's all over, I hope the U.S. gov't bills Trump for the damage he's done to our reputation

[dubkitty]

"I will argue as well that Trump will win in 2020 if the voices within the Democratic party that drink this ideological kool aid gain power. If you want Trump out of office, as I do, you need to win back previous Obama supporters that went for Trump in swing states. You aren't going to do that with left-wing woke contests."

that's not how the Dems just flipped both houses of the Virginia legislature. victorious candidates included an avowed socialist, a hijab-wearing Muslima, and a trans woman who moonlights as a singer with a death metal band. voter turnout was over 200% of normal. don't underestimate how many people despise Trump, or how deeply the anger goes. personally, i'd happily walk 25 miles to vote against that son of a bitch.

[jrfox92]

That being said, I wouldn't be surprised to see Trump win if the DNC is stupid enough to fix the primaries for Biden like they did Clinton last time.

[Benn Roe]

I will argue as well that Trump will win in 2020 if the voices within the Democratic party that drink this ideological kool aid gain power. If you want Trump out of office, as I do, you need to win back previous Obama supporters that went for Trump in swing states. You aren't going to do that with left-wing woke contests.

Yeah, this doesn't really conform to anything the last few elections have shown. The suburbs will seemingly vote for anyone who isn't Trump, ever-further-to-the-left Democrats keep getting elected, and the Obama/Trump voters don't care about politics or ideology, they just want someone to shake shit up because they feel like the political machine isn't on their side. Meanwhile, lots of moderates seem to be getting on board with Elizabeth Warren who ticks all those boxes: 1. isn't Trump, 2. leans relatively far left, and 3. plans to shake shit up. I'm feeling optimistic for once. I guess there's still plenty of time for people to get cold feet, end up running Biden, and suffer four more years of Trump...

[Gone Fission]

As Steyer’s campaign is falling into the sort of own-goal shambles that would embarrass most non-billionaires to hang it up, Bloomberg enters, because of course there’s nothing that heartland voters clamor for more than a useless douche billionaire who is more impressed with himself than the electorate is.

Maybe he will also join the litany of Wall Street parasites showing on the doll where Elizabeth Warren hurt his fee fees for good measure.

Rich guy vanity wank campaigns like this are one of the strongest arguments for a wealth tax.

[Chankgeez]

[Faldoe]

I will argue as well that Trump will win in 2020 if the voices within the Democratic party that drink this ideological kool aid gain power. If you want Trump out of office, as I do, you need to win back previous Obama supporters that went for Trump in swing states. You aren't going to do that with left-wing woke contests.

Yeah, this doesn't really conform to anything the last few elections have shown. The suburbs will seemingly vote for anyone who isn't Trump, ever-further-to-the-left Democrats keep getting elected, and the Obama/Trump voters don't care about politics or ideology, they just want someone to shake shit up because they feel like the political machine isn't on their side. Meanwhile, lots of moderates seem to be getting on board with Elizabeth Warren who ticks all those boxes: 1. isn't Trump, 2. leans relatively far left, and 3. plans to shake shit up. I'm feeling optimistic for once. I guess there's still plenty of time for people to get cold feet, end up running Biden, and suffer four more years of Trump...

Pete Buttigieg is on the rise in Iowa. Warren has kind of called back her rhetoric on the timeline for her healthcare reform.

Obama has cautioned on going too far left.

Funny you say Biden would be four more years of Trump. Biden polls well in African American communities. He is a known person that - despite his total buffoonery and seeming cognitive collapse - has a proven track record. If people see him and say "ehh, I'll go with Trump" I don't see how someone that is farther Left that is pushing policies that Trump can easily take down/ridicule (not necessarily logically as Trump doesn't traffic in that) then I don't see how they will win.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/15/us/p ... -ios-share

While Mr. Obama did not single out any specific primary candidate or policy proposal, he cautioned that the universe of voters that could support a Democratic candidate — Democrats, independents and moderate Republicans — are not driven by the same views reflected on “certain left-leaning Twitter feeds” or “the activist wing of our party.”

“Even as we push the envelope and we are bold in our vision we also have to be rooted in reality,” Mr. Obama said. “The average American doesn’t think we have to completely tear down the system and remake it.”

[Benn Roe]

Funny you say Biden would be four more years of Trump. Biden polls well in African American communities. He is a known person that - despite his total buffoonery and seeming cognitive collapse - has a proven track record. If people see him and say "ehh, I'll go with Trump" I don't see how someone that is farther Left that is pushing policies that Trump can easily take down/ridicule (not necessarily logically as Trump doesn't traffic in that) then I don't see how they will win.

I don't think many potential Warren voters would vote Trump over Biden, but I think lots of them will just stay home if presented with that choice, exactly as they did with Hillary. Proven track records, especially those like Biden's that are pretty transparently self-serving, are more of a liability than a boon these days, which is almost the basis on which Trump won last time around. To a large degree, the swing voters don't really care about ideology nearly as much as they care about blowing up politics. And frankly, Trump is going to belittle and ridicule whoever his opponent is, but nobody cares much about comments directed at "Sleepy Joe". It's when he starts spewing garbage about "Pocahontas" that he energizes voters against him at least as much as for. I mean all you really need to do is look at 2016. Democrats ran a moderate establishment candidate against him, and (we all) paid the price.

[K2000]

Apparently national elections are about motivating the base now. And the idea that swing voters care about policy is a fallacy. They are relatively low-information voters (makes sense) who vote based on "likability" etc.

[Chankgeez]

Heard a rumor Trump's tryin' to make the U.S. gov't more like fast food and this's gonna be the uniform:

[John]

LOL that "H 737" sticker is totes Photoshopped over the real badge insignia

[jirodreamsofdank]

I will argue as well that Trump will win in 2020 if the voices within the Democratic party that drink this ideological kool aid gain power. If you want Trump out of office, as I do, you need to win back previous Obama supporters that went for Trump in swing states. You aren't going to do that with left-wing woke contests.

This is a terrible reading of what actually happened in 2016. This group had a negligible impact on the outcome. The people who voted for Trump were the people who always vote for Republicans in this age, a coalition of rich white people and religious white people. White evangelicals voted for Trump at record rates - these are people who cannot, for now, conceivably be won over. At best you can hope they stay home but that's taken pederasty on the level of Roy Moore to happen lately.

Depressed turnout among the Democratic coalition was what gave him the election - if minority turnout had matched Obama 2012, Hillary would have won in a walk. In part this was because of Hillary herself, in part it's because she ran a shitty campaign, shooting herself in the foot in Wisconsin and Michigan, in part it's active voter suppression by the GOP.

Worrying about appealing to 'moderates' - ie moderate whites - is an absolute fool's errand in this environment.

[coupleonapkins]

[Chankgeez]

BABY YODA! BABY YODA! BABY YODA!

[Faldoe]

I will argue as well that Trump will win in 2020 if the voices within the Democratic party that drink this ideological kool aid gain power. If you want Trump out of office, as I do, you need to win back previous Obama supporters that went for Trump in swing states. You aren't going to do that with left-wing woke contests.

This is a terrible reading of what actually happened in 2016. This group had a negligible impact on the outcome. The people who voted for Trump were the people who always vote for Republicans in this age, a coalition of rich white people and religious white people. White evangelicals voted for Trump at record rates - these are people who cannot, for now, conceivably be won over. At best you can hope they stay home but that's taken pederasty on the level of Roy Moore to happen lately.

Depressed turnout among the Democratic coalition was what gave him the election - if minority turnout had matched Obama 2012, Hillary would have won in a walk. In part this was because of Hillary herself, in part it's because she ran a shitty campaign, shooting herself in the foot in Wisconsin and Michigan, in part it's active voter suppression by the GOP.

Worrying about appealing to 'moderates' - ie moderate whites - is an absolute fool's errand in this environment.

A study by the Democracy Fund Voter Study Group found that 9.2% of Obama voters voted for Trump in 2016.[1] According to the American National Election Study, 13% of Trump voters had voted for Obama in 2012.[2] Some analysts have argued that these voters had a disproportionately large impact on the 2016 election because they were concentrated in key swing states in the Midwest, while others have said that they were actually "Obama Republicans" rather than Democrats to begin with.[1][3] A May 2017 analysis by Global Strategy Group estimated that Obama-Trump voters accounted for more than two-thirds of Hillary Clinton's loss.[4]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Obama-Trump_voters



https://www.businessinsider.com/exit-po ... it-polls-4

The class-baiting stuff isn't working here. Yes more people under $50k voted for Clinton over Trump but when you get above that income wise it's about the same.

Clinton was a terrible candidate and I hated voting for her but I did. Didn't make any difference in California but in swing states you need a reasonable candidate to beat Trump. Democrats will dig their own graves if they keep up with the (feed off of) the Twitter pulse and the woke identity politics slant of the party that is emerging.

Like Republicans without a spine to stand up to Trump, the Democrats without a spine that won't stand up to the illogic coming from the Left will hasten a Trump reelection.

[jirodreamsofdank]

LOL, the "Global Strategy Group" are campaign consultants for centrist Democrats. Shocking that their party line is "you have to appeal to (white) moderates."

Democrats win 85+% of the votes of black Americans, election after election and since the GOP has become more openly racist, large majorities of other minority groups.
Depressing minority turnout is the key to the GOP winning anything nationally - hence, concerted efforts at voter intimidation and suppression. Hillary fed them an own goal on that front by doing things like not campaigning in Michigan - and pointedly trying to appeal to those vaunted moderate swing voters. See also, Chuck Schumer's line about hoovering up 'moderate Republicans in the suburbs.'

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-aven ... r-turnout/
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/re ... -election/

The bases for the Democratic Party are the working class (see that number re: people earning less than $50k) and minorities (in large part because those two categories overlap) - they have to be excited to vote, as they were in 2008 and (to a lesser extent) 2012. When Democrats don't aggressively get those people to the polls, they lose - 2000, 2004, 2016. Nominating dull centrists and hoping to swing Republican votes is a losing move. Trump has in-party approval that rivals W Bush on 9/12.